AI bubble observatory
people were already asking whether generative AI was becoming a bubble.
Since then, nobody has known when — or how — it might burst.
Continue
Documentary reference: TechCrunch, January 5, 2023 — «Whoops! Is generative AI already becoming a bubble?»
Tap a balloon to read the original words, date and source.
Swipe and tap: every statement links to its source.
After 1929, the Dow Jones took 25 years to surpass its previous peak. After 1989, the Nikkei took 34. Tap each curve to compare the rise, crash and recovery.
Sources are listed for every series: academic papers, central-bank archives, indices and financial reporting.
What we know, what we don't
Valuations, concentration, earnings and cash flow help show how fragile the market may be. They cannot predict the day of a crash.
This minisite does not claim that there is no AI bubble. It claims that bubble risk and the date it may burst are not the same information.
We do not publish a countdown: we periodically collect and verify the information that helps readers assess the risk.
01 / Signal
75 / 80 / 90
Since ChatGPT launched, AI-related stocks accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, roughly 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capex and R&D growth.
J.P. Morgan, Eye on the Market · September 2025 ↗02 / Signal
MAG 7 ↘
Apollo finds that Magnificent Seven earnings growth is converging toward the rest of the index while hyperscaler free cash flow is declining.
Torsten Slok, Apollo Academy · June 2026 ↗03 / Signal
STOCK ≠ INDEX
Schroders sees signs of froth but argues for managing risk stock by stock: selectivity and diversification, not a binary prophecy.
Schroders, Outlook 2026 ↗04 / Signal
DATA ≠ DATE
Historical data links high valuations to lower expected returns. Their relationship with the exact timing of a correction remains weak and noisy.
Ben Felix, Rational Reminder · January 2026 ↗The US market is not collapsing: its leading players are changing. The Magnificent Seven’s advantage is narrowing, while the rest of the S&P 500, small caps and value stocks regain ground. Ed Yardeni raised his year-end 2026 target for the index to 8,250 points. Concentration risk remains, but market leadership is broadening.
Not every analysis reads the current cycle as an already-formed bubble. These views do not erase the risk; they explain why comparisons with 2000 may be incomplete.
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
J.P. Morgan
Manual update: at KANSEI, we collect, verify and publish new data and sources here. Last editorial review: July 24, 2026.
If a data point cannot be verified, it is not published. If you spot an error, let us know at redazione@kanseimagazine.com and we will correct it.
Editorial and informational content. This is not financial advice or an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments.
They call it a bubble, but never say when. Without a date, the prediction cannot be tested.
NO DEADLINE · 2023
“I call it the 'dot AI' bubble, and it hasn't even started yet.”Open the source ↗Source: CNBC, via Business Insider ↗
NO DEADLINE · 2024
“When you have these great developments, they overdo themselves in the short term, they crash in the intermediate term…”Open the source ↗Source: Morningstar, via Markets Insider ↗
NO DEADLINE · 2025
“Where we are in the cycle right now is very similar to where we were between 1998 or 1999.”Open the source ↗Source: Financial Times, via Financial Post ↗
NO DEADLINE · 2024
“Right now there's way too much confidence about the future trajectory of AI.”
“It's just a lot of hype, the typical bubble hype where people are trying to cash in on the latest trend.”Open the source ↗Source: Bloomberg TV, via Business Insider ↗
NO DEADLINE · 2024
“One of the most important lessons I've learned over the past three decades is that bubbles can take a long time to burst.”Open the source ↗Source: Bloomberg, via The Wealth Advisor ↗